Polish Ekstraklasa, round 3 · Monday, 12 October, MSK · Arena Katowice
GKS Katowice — Wieczysta Kraków
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2:1Came true
In short
Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, GKS Katowice to win (45%), came true.
GKS Katowice are slightly stronger: 45% against 27%, draw 27%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.5 in total, against a competition average of 2.8.
Over 2.5 goals — 67%, both teams to score — 70%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
- GKS Katowice: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: GKS Katowice — Wieczysta Kraków What is xG? | 1.9–1.5 | |
| GKS Katowice not to lose | 73% | |
| Wieczysta Kraków not to lose | 55% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 30% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 67% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 33% |
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Form
- 09.10away · Raków Częstochowa4:1
- 19.09Cracovia3:2
- 12.09away · Zagłębie Lubin1:2
- 04.09away · Piast Gliwice0:3
- 30.08away · Górnik Zabrze3:2
- 09.10Wisła Płock3:0
- 18.09away · Widzew Łódź2:2
- 13.09away · Pogoń Szczecin0:2
- 07.09Zagłębie Lubin1:1
- 29.08away · Wisła Kraków0:2
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4, Europa League or Conference League | Pogoń Szczecin | 9 | 5 | +8 | 18 |
| 5 | GKS Katowice | 10 | 6 | +7 | 18 |
| 6 | Wisła Kraków | 10 | 5 | +3 | 17 |
| 14 | Motor Lublin | 10 | 2 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 | Wieczysta Kraków | 10 | 2 | -4 | 8 |
| 16, Relegation | Radomiak Radom | 10 | 2 | -14 | 8 |
Next matches
- Wieczysta KrakówRaków Częstochowa16 October · Ekstraklasa4628261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.3
- GKS KatowicePogoń Szczecin17 October · Ekstraklasa4429271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
Ekstraklasa on the same day
- 4229291The most likely outcome did not happen: 12:3Final score 2:3. Model's score: 2:0.3.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →