Polish Ekstraklasa, round 13 · Friday, 30 October, MSK
Górnik Zabrze — Legia Warszawa
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 30 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Górnik Zabrze are clear favourites: 48% against 22% for the opponent, draw 30%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 54%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Górnik Zabrze are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Górnik Zabrze — No. 1, 25 pts; Legia Warszawa — No. 2, 22 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
- Górnik Zabrze: unbeaten in 5; Legia Warszawa: unbeaten in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Górnik Zabrze 1 win, Legia Warszawa 2, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Górnik Zabrze — Legia Warszawa What is xG? | 1.5–1.0 | |
| Górnik Zabrze not to lose | 78% | |
| Legia Warszawa not to lose | 52% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 48% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 52% |
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Form
- 10.10away · Jagiellonia Białystok3:1
- 19.09away · Motor Lublin0:0
- 15.09away · Korona Kielce2:0
- 12.09Lech Poznań2:1
- 06.09away · Cracovia1:0
- 11.10Wisła Kraków2:0
- 20.09away · Jagiellonia Białystok3:1
- 13.09Widzew Łódź1:1
- 05.09away · Motor Lublin3:2
- 28.08Śląsk Wrocław1:1
Head to head
- 11.04.2026Legia Warszawa — Górnik Zabrze1:1
- 05.10.2025Górnik Zabrze — Legia Warszawa3:1
- 06.04.2025Górnik Zabrze — Legia Warszawa1:2
- 28.09.2024Legia Warszawa — Górnik Zabrze1:1
- 01.04.2024Górnik Zabrze — Legia Warszawa1:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League qualifying | Górnik Zabrze | 10 | 8 | +10 | 25 |
| 2, Champions League qualifying | Legia Warszawa | 10 | 6 | +13 | 22 |
| 3, Europa League or Conference League | Lech Poznań | 9 | 7 | +13 | 22 |
Ekstraklasa on the same day
- CracoviaMotor Lublinpreliminary5127231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →