Brazilian Serie A, round 31 · Sunday, 18 October, MSK
Grêmio — Cruzeiro
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 18 October
In short
Cruzeiro are slightly stronger: 43% against 28%, draw 29%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 61%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Cruzeiro are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Grêmio — No. 18, 31 pts; Cruzeiro — No. 6, 48 pts. A gap of 17 pts.
- Grêmio: winless in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Grêmio 0 wins, Cruzeiro 4, 1 draw.
- Days of rest before the match: Grêmio 7, Cruzeiro 5.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Grêmio — Cruzeiro What is xG? | 1.3–1.6 | |
| Grêmio not to lose | 57% | |
| Cruzeiro not to lose | 72% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 61% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 39% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 56% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 44% |
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- Handicap Grêmio
- Grêmio goals
- Cruzeiro goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 11.10Internacional1:1
- 08.10away · Remo1:1
- 20.09Palmeiras0:0
- 17.09away · Botafogo2:3
- 12.09Vasco da Gama1:2
- 13.10away · RB Bragantino2:4
- 08.10São Paulo2:0
- 20.09away · Vitória3:1
- 13.09away · Santos1:2
- 06.09Athletico Paranaense3:1
Head to head
- 19.04.2026Cruzeiro — Grêmio2:0
- 06.11.2025Grêmio — Cruzeiro0:1
- 14.07.2025Cruzeiro — Grêmio4:1
- 28.11.2024Cruzeiro — Grêmio1:1
- 11.07.2024Grêmio — Cruzeiro0:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5, Copa Libertadores | Bahia | 30 | 13 | +8 | 49 |
| 6, Copa Sudamericana | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | +2 | 48 |
| 7, Copa Sudamericana | Atlético-MG | 30 | 13 | +6 | 47 |
| 17, Relegation | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | -7 | 32 |
| 18, Relegation | Grêmio | 30 | 7 | -8 | 31 |
| 19, Relegation | Remo | 30 | 5 | -15 | 25 |
Brasileirao on the same day
- 6620131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.1
- 6721121The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- 3329382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.7
- 352936XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.7
- 5326211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →