Brazilian Serie A, round 30 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Arena do Grêmio
Grêmio — Internacional
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
1:1Came true
In short
Final score 1:1: the model's most likely outcome, a draw (30%), came true.
Evenly matched: Grêmio 37%, Internacional 34%, draw 30%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 58%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Internacional are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Grêmio — Internacional What is xG? | 1.4–1.3 | |
| Grêmio not to lose | 66% | |
| Internacional not to lose | 63% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 51% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 49% |
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Form
- 08.10away · Remo1:1
- 20.09Palmeiras0:0
- 17.09away · Botafogo2:3
- 12.09Vasco da Gama1:2
- 08.09away · Vitória0:1
- 08.10Corinthians2:1
- 20.09away · São Paulo0:1
- 12.09away · Chapecoense2:1
- 06.09Santos2:3
- 04.09away · Grêmio1:3
Head to head
- 04.09.2026Grêmio — Internacional3:1
- 28.08.2026Internacional — Grêmio0:0
- 12.04.2026Internacional — Grêmio0:0
- 21.09.2025Internacional — Grêmio2:3
- 20.04.2025Grêmio — Internacional1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | -5 | 32 |
| 17, Relegation | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | -7 | 32 |
| 18, Relegation | Grêmio | 30 | 7 | -8 | 31 |
| 19, Relegation | Remo | 30 | 5 | -15 | 25 |
Next matches
- MirassolInternacional17 October · Brasileirao4229281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.7
- GrêmioCruzeiro18 October · Brasileirao3129402The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.7
Brasileirao on the same day
- 6222161The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.9
- 5028221The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.3
- 5027231The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:1, exactly right.2.7
- 6720121The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.8
- 6324121The most likely outcome came true: 14:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 37% will not happen in roughly 63 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →