Bundesliga, round 6 · Saturday, 17 October, MSK
Hamburger SV — VfB Stuttgart
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 17 October
In short
VfB Stuttgart are clear favourites: 54% against 20% for the opponent, draw 26%.
3.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 65%, both teams to score — 67%.
Why
- By the strength ratings VfB Stuttgart are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Hamburger SV — VfB Stuttgart What is xG? | 1.3–2.0 | |
| Hamburger SV not to lose | 46% | |
| VfB Stuttgart not to lose | 80% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 67% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 33% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 65% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 35% |
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- Handicap Hamburger SV
- Hamburger SV goals
- VfB Stuttgart goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 10.10away · Hoffenheim3:2
- 19.091. FC Köln2:1
- 13.09away · RB Leipzig0:5
- 06.09Mainz 050:5
- 29.08away · Borussia Dortmund0:2
- 10.10away · Paderborn2:0
- 19.09Borussia Dortmund0:1
- 12.09away · Hoffenheim1:2
- 09.09Viking3:1
- 04.091. FC Köln4:1
Head to head
- 12.04.2026VfB Stuttgart — Hamburger SV4:0
- 30.11.2025Hamburger SV — VfB Stuttgart2:1
- 29.10.2019Hamburger SV — VfB Stuttgart1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 1. FC Köln | 5 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV | 5 | 2 | -10 | 6 |
| 13 | Schalke 04 | 5 | 1 | -2 | 5 |
Bundesliga on the same day
- 4328291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.1
- 2330472The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.1
- 1823592The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.0
- 4929221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.6
- 801371The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:14.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 54% will not happen in roughly 46 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →