Bundesliga, round 6 · Saturday, 17 October, MSK
Union Berlin — Borussia Dortmund
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 17 October
In short
Borussia Dortmund are clear favourites: 59% against 18% for the opponent, draw 23%.
3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 58%, both teams to score — 59%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Borussia Dortmund are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Union Berlin — Borussia Dortmund What is xG? | 1.1–1.9 | |
| Union Berlin not to lose | 41% | |
| Borussia Dortmund not to lose | 82% | |
| No draw | 77% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 59% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 41% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 58% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 42% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Union Berlin
- Union Berlin goals
- Borussia Dortmund goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10Elversberg1:0
- 18.09away · Bayern München0:7
- 11.09Schalke 041:3
- 05.09away · Bayer Leverkusen0:4
- 29.08Eintracht Frankfurt3:3
- 09.10Werder Bremen2:2
- 19.09away · VfB Stuttgart1:0
- 12.09Paderborn3:0
- 08.09Villarreal3:2
- 05.09away · Hoffenheim3:2
Head to head
- 24.01.2026Union Berlin — Borussia Dortmund0:3
- 31.08.2025Borussia Dortmund — Union Berlin3:0
- 22.02.2025Borussia Dortmund — Union Berlin6:0
- 05.10.2024Union Berlin — Borussia Dortmund2:1
- 02.03.2024Union Berlin — Borussia Dortmund0:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League | Freiburg | 5 | 4 | +10 | 13 |
| 2, Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4 | +7 | 13 |
| 3, Champions League | Bayern München | 5 | 3 | +12 | 11 |
| 15 | Paderborn | 5 | 1 | -4 | 4 |
| 16, Relegation play-off | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | -12 | 4 |
| 17, Relegation | Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | -4 | 3 |
Bundesliga on the same day
- 4328291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.1
- 2026552The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.3
- 2330472The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.1
- 4929221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.6
- 801371The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:14.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 59% will not happen in roughly 41 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →