2. Bundesliga, round 7 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Olympiastadion Berlin
Hertha BSC — Greuther Fürth
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
2:1Came true
In short
Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, Hertha BSC to win (55%), came true.
Hertha BSC are clear favourites: 55% against 20% for the opponent, draw 25%.
3.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.0).
Over 2.5 goals — 65%, both teams to score — 65%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Hertha BSC are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Hertha BSC — Greuther Fürth What is xG? | 2.1–1.3 | |
| Hertha BSC not to lose | 80% | |
| Greuther Fürth not to lose | 45% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 65% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 35% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 65% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 35% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Hertha BSC
- Hertha BSC goals
- Greuther Fürth goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Form
- 19.09away · Dynamo Dresden2:1
- 13.09away · VfL Osnabrück3:1
- 06.09Magdeburg2:1
- 28.08away · Eintracht Braunschweig5:3
- 22.08away · Saarbrücken1:1
- 18.09Magdeburg1:1
- 12.09away · Bochum1:1
- 06.09FC Heidenheim0:1
- 29.08away · Energie Cottbus4:3
- 23.08Bochum1:2
Head to head
- 10.05.2026Hertha BSC — Greuther Fürth2:1
- 12.12.2025Greuther Fürth — Hertha BSC3:3
- 04.05.2025Hertha BSC — Greuther Fürth1:0
- 07.12.2024Greuther Fürth — Hertha BSC2:1
- 11.02.2024Greuther Fürth — Hertha BSC1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Promotion | Hertha BSC | 7 | 7 | +11 | 21 |
| 2, Promotion | 1. FC Nürnberg | 7 | 5 | +10 | 17 |
| 14 | Darmstadt | 7 | 2 | -6 | 7 |
| 15 | Greuther Fürth | 7 | 1 | -3 | 6 |
| 16, Relegation play-off | Dynamo Dresden | 7 | 1 | -6 | 5 |
Next matches
- Holstein KielHertha BSC16 October · 2. Bundesliga3427392The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.2
- Greuther FürthEintracht Braunschweig17 October · 2. Bundesliga4826261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
2. Bundesliga on the same day
- 4527281The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.9
- 5526191The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 55% will not happen in roughly 45 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →