2. Bundesliga, round 7 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Millerntor-Stadion
St. Pauli — Karlsruher SC
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2:0Came true
In short
Final score 2:0: the model's most likely outcome, St. Pauli to win (55%), came true.
St. Pauli are clear favourites: 55% against 19% for the opponent, draw 26%.
The model expects few goals: 2.7 in total, against a competition average of 3.0.
Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 53%.
Why
- By the strength ratings St. Pauli are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- Karlsruher SC: winless in 4.
- Last 5 meetings: St. Pauli 2 wins, Karlsruher SC 1, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: St. Pauli — Karlsruher SC What is xG? | 1.7–1.0 | |
| St. Pauli not to lose | 81% | |
| Karlsruher SC not to lose | 45% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 47% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 50% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 50% |
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- St. Pauli goals
- Karlsruher SC goals
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Form
- 20.09away · Energie Cottbus1:1
- 12.09Wolfsburg1:0
- 04.09away · Arminia Bielefeld2:2
- 30.08Kaiserslautern1:2
- 23.08away · RW Essen0:2
- 19.091. FC Nürnberg0:1
- 13.09Energie Cottbus0:3
- 04.09away · Hannover 962:2
- 29.08Wolfsburg2:5
- 21.08away · Preussen Münster2:1
Head to head
- 06.04.2024Karlsruher SC — St. Pauli2:1
- 28.10.2023St. Pauli — Karlsruher SC2:1
- 28.05.2023St. Pauli — Karlsruher SC1:1
- 12.11.2022Karlsruher SC — St. Pauli4:4
- 05.03.2022St. Pauli — Karlsruher SC3:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Kaiserslautern | 7 | 3 | +2 | 12 |
| 7 | St. Pauli | 7 | 2 | +2 | 10 |
| 8 | Energie Cottbus | 7 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 16, Relegation play-off | Dynamo Dresden | 7 | 1 | -6 | 5 |
| 17, Relegation | Karlsruher SC | 7 | 1 | -8 | 5 |
| 18, Relegation | Holstein Kiel | 7 | 0 | -4 | 4 |
Next matches
- Hannover 96St. Pauli17 October · 2. Bundesliga4627261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- Karlsruher SCDarmstadt18 October · 2. Bundesliga4227311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.2
2. Bundesliga on the same day
- 4527281The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.9
- 5525201The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.3.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 55% will not happen in roughly 45 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →