UEFA Nations League, round 3, League B, group 2 · Friday, 2 October, MSK · Puskás Aréna
Hungary — Georgia
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1:0Came true
In short
Final score 1:0: the model's most likely outcome, Hungary to win (46%), came true.
Hungary are slightly stronger: 46% against 26%, draw 28%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).
Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 54%.
Why
- National-team Elo: Hungary 1691, Georgia 1630 — Hungary rated higher.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Hungary — Georgia What is xG? | 1.6–1.1 | |
| Hungary not to lose | 74% | |
| Georgia not to lose | 54% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 50% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 50% |
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- Handicap Hungary
- Hungary goals
- Georgia goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 28.09away · Northern Ireland0:0
- 25.09Ukraine0:1
- 09.06Kazakhstan3:1
- 05.06Finland2:1
- 31.03Greece0:0
- 28.09Ukraine0:0
- 25.09Northern Ireland0:1
- 05.06Bahrain2:0
- 02.06Romania1:1
- 29.03away · Lithuania2:0
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Promotion to the league above | Northern Ireland | 4 | 2 | +4 | 8 |
| 2, Promotion play-offs | Hungary | 4 | 2 | +1 | 7 |
| 3 | Ukraine | 4 | 1 | -3 | 4 |
| 4, Relegation play-off | Georgia | 4 | 0 | -2 | 2 |
Next matches
- UkraineHungary5 October · UEFA Nations League3030402The most likely outcome came true: 21:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.3
- Northern IrelandGeorgia5 October · UEFA Nations League4230281The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.2
UEFA Nations League on the same day
- 5426201The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.7
- 3826361The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:1.3.2
- 2228502The most likely outcome came true: 21:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.5
- 6520151The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 2:1.3.5
- 5923181The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:1.3.1
- 4630241The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:3Final score 0:3. Model's score: 1:0.2.3
- 2424522The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:2.3.1
- 5226231The most likely outcome came true: 16:0Final score 6:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →