UEFA Nations League, round 4, League B, group 2 · Monday, 5 October, MSK · Clearer Twist National Stadium at Windsor Park
Northern Ireland — Georgia
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
In short
Final score 0:0: the model's most likely outcome, Northern Ireland to win (42%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 42% fails in about 58 matches out of 100 on average.
Northern Ireland are slightly stronger: 42% against 28%, draw 30%.
2.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).
Over 2.5 goals — 38%, both teams to score — 45%.
Why
- National-team Elo: Northern Ireland 1681, Georgia 1619 — Northern Ireland rated higher.
- Northern Ireland: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Northern Ireland — Georgia What is xG? | 1.2–1.0 | |
| Northern Ireland not to lose | 72% | |
| Georgia not to lose | 58% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 45% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 55% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 38% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 62% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Northern Ireland
- Northern Ireland goals
- Georgia goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 02.10away · Ukraine3:0
- 28.09Hungary0:0
- 25.09away · Georgia1:0
- 08.06away · France1:3
- 04.06Guinea1:0
Head to head
- 25.09.2026Georgia — Northern Ireland0:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Promotion to the league above | Northern Ireland | 4 | 2 | +4 | 8 |
| 2, Promotion play-offs | Hungary | 4 | 2 | +1 | 7 |
| 3 | Ukraine | 4 | 1 | -3 | 4 |
| 4, Relegation play-off | Georgia | 4 | 0 | -2 | 2 |
UEFA Nations League on the same day
- 5028221The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:1, exactly right.2.5
- 5225231The most likely outcome came true: 14:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 1:0.3.0
- 5922191The most likely outcome came true: 13:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 3:0.3.1
- 3030402The most likely outcome came true: 21:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.3
- 2527482The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 0:2.2.5
- 2324532The most likely outcome came true: 20:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 1:2.3.2
- 5922191The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 3:1.3.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →