UEFA Nations League, round 3, League B, group 4 · Friday, 2 October, MSK · Stadion Bilino Polje
Bosnia and Herzegovina — Sweden
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In short
Final score 1:1: the model's most likely outcome, Sweden to win (52%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 52% fails in about 48 matches out of 100 on average.
Sweden are clear favourites: 52% against 24% for the opponent, draw 24%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.1 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.
Over 2.5 goals — 61%, both teams to score — 61%.
Why
- National-team Elo: Bosnia and Herzegovina 1655, Sweden 1759 — Sweden rated higher.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Bosnia and Herzegovina — Sweden What is xG? | 1.2–1.9 | |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina not to lose | 48% | |
| Sweden not to lose | 76% | |
| No draw | 76% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 61% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 39% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 61% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 39% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Bosnia and Herzegovina goals
- Sweden goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 28.09away · Romania4:2
- 25.09away · Poland0:0
- 02.07away · USA0:2
- 24.06Qatar3:1
- 18.06away · Switzerland1:4
- 28.09Poland3:1
- 25.09Romania2:1
- 01.07away · France0:3
- 26.06away · Japan1:1
- 20.06away · Netherlands1:5
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Promotion to the league above | Sweden | 4 | 3 | +4 | 10 |
| 2, Promotion play-offs | Bosnia and Herzegovina | 4 | 2 | +3 | 8 |
| 3 | Poland | 4 | 1 | +3 | 4 |
| 4, Relegation play-off | Romania | 4 | 0 | -10 | 0 |
Next matches
- Bosnia and HerzegovinaPoland5 October · UEFA Nations League2527482The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 0:2.2.5
- RomaniaSweden5 October · UEFA Nations League2324532The most likely outcome came true: 20:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 1:2.3.2
UEFA Nations League on the same day
- 5426201The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.7
- 3826361The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:1.3.2
- 2228502The most likely outcome came true: 21:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.5
- 6520151The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 2:1.3.5
- 5923181The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:1.3.1
- 4628261The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:0, exactly right.2.7
- 4630241The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:3Final score 0:3. Model's score: 1:0.2.3
- 5226231The most likely outcome came true: 16:0Final score 6:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 52% will not happen in roughly 48 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →