K League 1 (South Korea), round 33 · Saturday, 24 October, MSK
Incheon United — Jeju SK
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 24 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Incheon United are slightly stronger: 44% against 26%, draw 31%.
The model expects few goals: 2.1 in total, against a competition average of 2.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 36%, both teams to score — 44%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Incheon United are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Incheon United — Jeju SK What is xG? | 1.2–0.9 | |
| Incheon United not to lose | 74% | |
| Jeju SK not to lose | 56% | |
| No draw | 69% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 44% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 56% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 36% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 64% |
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- Jeju SK goals
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Form
- 09.10Pohang Steelers3:0
- 27.09away · Gangwon FC0:0
- 20.09Daejeon Hana Citizen1:1
- 12.09away · Ulsan HD FC1:2
- 08.09Bucheon FC 19952:1
- 10.10away · FC Seoul1:2
- 20.09away · Gangwon FC1:0
- 12.09away · Bucheon FC 19952:2
- 09.09away · Gwangju FC1:0
- 05.09Ulsan HD FC0:0
Head to head
- 02.08.2026Jeju SK — Incheon United3:3
- 25.04.2026Incheon United — Jeju SK1:0
- 19.10.2024Incheon United — Jeju SK1:2
- 10.08.2024Jeju SK — Incheon United0:1
- 26.06.2024Jeju SK — Incheon United1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Championship round | Gangwon FC | 31 | 11 | +10 | 46 |
| 4, Championship round | Jeju SK | 31 | 12 | +5 | 46 |
| 5, Championship round | Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC | 31 | 11 | +9 | 44 |
| 6, Championship round | Daejeon Hana Citizen | 31 | 11 | +10 | 43 |
| 7, Relegation round | Incheon United | 31 | 11 | +6 | 42 |
| 8, Relegation round | FC Anyang | 31 | 10 | -8 | 41 |
K League 1 on the same day
- FC AnyangJeonbuk Hyundai Motors FCpreliminary2729442The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
- Bucheon FC 1995Gwangju FCpreliminary4030301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- Gimcheon SangmuDaejeon Hana Citizenpreliminary333037XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.7
- FC SeoulGangwon FCpreliminary5427191The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
- Ulsan HD FCPohang Steelerspreliminary4330281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →