Colombian Primera A (Liga BetPlay) · Tuesday, 6 October, MSK · Estadio Metropolitano de Itagüí
Independiente Medellín — Santa Fe
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
In short
Final score 0:1: the model's most likely outcome, Independiente Medellín to win (44%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 44% fails in about 56 matches out of 100 on average.
Independiente Medellín are slightly stronger: 44% against 28%, draw 28%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 52%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Independiente Medellín are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- Last 5 meetings: Independiente Medellín 1 win, Santa Fe 2, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Independiente Medellín — Santa Fe What is xG? | 1.4–1.1 | |
| Independiente Medellín not to lose | 72% | |
| Santa Fe not to lose | 56% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 52% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 48% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 46% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 54% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Independiente Medellín
- Independiente Medellín goals
- Santa Fe goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 30.09Millonarios2:2
- 27.09away · Junior FC0:2
- 23.09CD Jaguares2:1
- 18.09away · Bucaramanga2:2
- 13.09away · Chicó FC1:2
- 29.09away · Deportivo Pereira2:1
- 23.09Deportivo Cali0:1
- 20.09away · Alianza FC4:1
- 16.09away · Vasco da Gama0:2
- 12.09Tolima1:0
Head to head
- 24.03.2026Santa Fe — Independiente Medellín2:1
- 21.10.2025Independiente Medellín — Santa Fe1:1
- 30.06.2025Independiente Medellín — Santa Fe1:2
- 25.06.2025Santa Fe — Independiente Medellín0:0
- 15.04.2025Santa Fe — Independiente Medellín1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4, Semi-final groups | Atlético Nacional | 11 | 7 | +11 | 23 |
| 5, Semi-final groups | Independiente Medellín | 13 | 7 | +4 | 23 |
| 6, Semi-final groups | Santa Fe | 12 | 6 | +7 | 22 |
| 7, Semi-final groups | Millonarios | 14 | 5 | +7 | 22 |
Next matches
- América de CaliIndependiente Medellín12 October · Colombian Primera A5128211The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 2:0.2.6
- Santa FeCD Jaguares15 October · Colombian Primera A731891The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →