Brazilian Serie A, round 29 · Thursday, 8 October, MSK · Estádio José Pinheiro Borda
Internacional — Corinthians
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2:1Came true
In short
Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, Internacional to win (52%), came true.
Internacional are clear favourites: 52% against 22% for the opponent, draw 26%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 45%, both teams to score — 49%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Internacional are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- Corinthians: 3 defeats in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Internacional 2 wins, Corinthians 2, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Internacional — Corinthians What is xG? | 1.5–0.9 | |
| Internacional not to lose | 78% | |
| Corinthians not to lose | 48% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 49% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 51% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 45% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 55% |
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Form
- 20.09away · São Paulo0:1
- 12.09away · Chapecoense2:1
- 06.09Santos2:3
- 04.09away · Grêmio1:3
- 31.08away · Bahia2:3
- 20.09Fluminense1:3
- 17.09Estudiantes0:1
- 13.09away · Flamengo1:2
- 10.09away · Estudiantes1:1
- 07.09Chapecoense1:2
Head to head
- 07.08.2026Corinthians — Internacional2:1
- 03.08.2026Internacional — Corinthians2:0
- 06.04.2026Corinthians — Internacional0:1
- 02.10.2025Internacional — Corinthians1:1
- 04.05.2025Corinthians — Internacional4:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | -10 | 33 |
| 16 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | -5 | 32 |
| 17, Relegation | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | -7 | 32 |
| 18, Relegation | Grêmio | 30 | 7 | -8 | 31 |
Next matches
- GrêmioInternacional11 October · Brasileirao373034XThe most likely outcome came true: X1:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:1, exactly right.2.7
- PalmeirasCorinthians11 October · Brasileirao6324121The most likely outcome came true: 14:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.3
Brasileirao on the same day
- 4628261The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.7
- 4827251The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.7
- 5526191The most likely outcome came true: 14:0Final score 4:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.6
- 5126231The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.9
- 5227211The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 52% will not happen in roughly 48 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →