English Premier League, round 6 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Portman Road

Ipswich Town — Fulham

☆ Save match

Model prediction and result

2:1Missed
Ipswich Town22%
Draw28%
Fulham50%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, Fulham to win (50%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 50% fails in about 50 matches out of 100 on average.

Fulham are clear favourites: 50% against 22% for the opponent, draw 28%.

2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).

Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 57%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Fulham are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Ipswich Town — Fulham What is xG?1.1–1.6
Ipswich Town not to lose50%
Fulham not to lose78%
No draw72%
Both teams to score: yes57%
Both teams to score: no43%
Total over 2.552%
Total under 2.548%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Ipswich Town
  • Ipswich Town goals
  • Fulham goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month

Form

Ipswich Town

  • 19.09away · Everton0:1
  • 15.09Arsenal2:4
  • 12.09away · Crystal Palace3:2
  • 04.09Liverpool0:2
  • 30.08away · Manchester United2:5

Fulham

  • 20.09Manchester United1:1
  • 15.09away · West Ham United3:2
  • 12.09away · Liverpool0:0
  • 05.09Crystal Palace2:3
  • 30.08away · Sunderland0:1

Head to head

  • 05.01.2025Fulham — Ipswich Town2:2
  • 31.08.2024Ipswich Town — Fulham1:1
  • 01.11.2023Ipswich Town — Fulham1:3
  • 16.09.2020Ipswich Town — Fulham0:1

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
9Liverpool62317–709
10Ipswich Town63039–12-39
11Newcastle United622210–13-38
19, RelegationTottenham Hotspur60333–9-63
20, RelegationFulham60246–10-42

Season 2026/27

Full table

Next matches

  • Manchester CityIpswich Town17 October · Premier League
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.6
  • FulhamHull City17 October · Premier League
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6

Premier League on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →