Polish Ekstraklasa, round 10 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Chorten Arena
Jagiellonia Białystok — Górnik Zabrze
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
1:3Missed
In short
Final score 1:3: the model's most likely outcome, a draw (30%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 30% fails in about 70 matches out of 100 on average.
Evenly matched: Jagiellonia Białystok 36%, Górnik Zabrze 34%, draw 30%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- Jagiellonia Białystok: 3 defeats in a row; Górnik Zabrze: unbeaten in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Jagiellonia Białystok 1 win, Górnik Zabrze 3, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Jagiellonia Białystok — Górnik Zabrze What is xG? | 1.3–1.3 | |
| Jagiellonia Białystok not to lose | 66% | |
| Górnik Zabrze not to lose | 64% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 50% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 50% |
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- Handicap Jagiellonia Białystok
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Form
- 20.09Legia Warszawa1:3
- 16.09away · Olympiacos1:2
- 11.09away · Wisła Kraków0:2
- 06.09Śląsk Wrocław2:1
- 03.09away · Lech Poznań1:2
- 19.09away · Motor Lublin0:0
- 15.09away · Korona Kielce2:0
- 12.09Lech Poznań2:1
- 06.09away · Cracovia1:0
- 03.09away · Raków Częstochowa2:1
Head to head
- 24.04.2026Jagiellonia Białystok — Górnik Zabrze1:2
- 26.10.2025Górnik Zabrze — Jagiellonia Białystok2:1
- 04.05.2025Jagiellonia Białystok — Górnik Zabrze1:1
- 03.11.2024Górnik Zabrze — Jagiellonia Białystok0:2
- 02.03.2024Górnik Zabrze — Jagiellonia Białystok2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League qualifying | Górnik Zabrze | 10 | 8 | +10 | 25 |
| 2, Champions League qualifying | Legia Warszawa | 10 | 6 | +13 | 22 |
| 9 | Zagłębie Lubin | 10 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 | Jagiellonia Białystok | 9 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 11 | Cracovia | 10 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
Next matches
- Jagiellonia BiałystokArarat Armenia15 October · Europa League5524211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:12.9
- Górnik ZabrzePiast Gliwice18 October · Ekstraklasa5926161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.7
Ekstraklasa on the same day
- 4829231The most likely outcome came true: 13:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.3
- 2026542The most likely outcome came true: 21:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 0:2.3.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 36% will not happen in roughly 64 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →