Polish Ekstraklasa, round 10 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego
Cracovia — Zagłębie Lubin
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3:1Came true
In short
Final score 3:1: the model's most likely outcome, Cracovia to win (48%), came true.
Cracovia are clear favourites: 48% against 23% for the opponent, draw 29%.
The model expects few goals: 2.3 in total, against a competition average of 2.8.
Over 2.5 goals — 41%, both teams to score — 47%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Cracovia are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Cracovia — Zagłębie Lubin What is xG? | 1.4–0.9 | |
| Cracovia not to lose | 77% | |
| Zagłębie Lubin not to lose | 52% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 47% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 53% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 41% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 59% |
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Form
- 19.09away · GKS Katowice2:3
- 13.09away · Wisła Płock1:3
- 06.09Górnik Zabrze0:1
- 29.08away · Radomiak Radom1:2
- 21.08Wieczysta Kraków3:2
- 20.09Wisła Płock0:2
- 15.09away · Raków Częstochowa3:2
- 12.09GKS Katowice2:1
- 07.09away · Wieczysta Kraków1:1
- 29.08Pogoń Szczecin0:0
Head to head
- 03.05.2026Zagłębie Lubin — Cracovia0:0
- 03.11.2025Cracovia — Zagłębie Lubin0:0
- 24.05.2025Zagłębie Lubin — Cracovia1:2
- 29.11.2024Cracovia — Zagłębie Lubin1:1
- 18.02.2024Zagłębie Lubin — Cracovia1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Korona Kielce | 10 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 9 | Zagłębie Lubin | 10 | 4 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 | Jagiellonia Białystok | 9 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 11 | Cracovia | 10 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 12 | Wisła Płock | 9 | 3 | -6 | 11 |
Next matches
- CracoviaLegia Warszawa17 October · Ekstraklasa363035XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.5
- Zagłębie LubinJagiellonia Białystok18 October · Ekstraklasa383032XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.7
Ekstraklasa on the same day
- 2026542The most likely outcome came true: 21:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 0:2.3.2
- 363034XThe most likely outcome did not happen: X1:3Final score 1:3. Model's score: 1:1.2.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →