J1 League (Japan), round 13 · Saturday, 31 October, MSK
Kashima Antlers — Cerezo Osaka
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 31 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Kashima Antlers are clear favourites: 49% against 24% for the opponent, draw 27%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 58%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Kashima Antlers are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Kashima Antlers — No. 6, 16 pts; Cerezo Osaka — No. 12, 12 pts. A gap of 4 pts.
- Cerezo Osaka: winless in 4.
- Last 5 meetings: Kashima Antlers 3 wins, Cerezo Osaka 1, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Kashima Antlers — Cerezo Osaka What is xG? | 1.7–1.2 | |
| Kashima Antlers not to lose | 76% | |
| Cerezo Osaka not to lose | 51% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
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- Handicap Kashima Antlers
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- Cerezo Osaka goals
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Form
- 09.10Gamba Osaka2:0
- 19.09away · Kawasaki Frontale3:3
- 11.09away · Vissel Kobe1:2
- 06.09Urawa Red Diamonds0:1
- 02.09away · Mito Hollyhock2:4
- 10.10Yokohama F.Marinos0:0
- 19.09away · V-Varen Nagasaki1:1
- 12.09away · Sanfrecce Hiroshima1:6
- 06.09Tokyo Verdy0:0
- 02.09Kashiwa Reysol2:0
Head to head
- 23.09.2025Kashima Antlers — Cerezo Osaka3:1
- 12.04.2025Cerezo Osaka — Kashima Antlers1:0
- 30.11.2024Cerezo Osaka — Kashima Antlers0:2
- 02.03.2024Kashima Antlers — Cerezo Osaka1:1
- 16.09.2023Kashima Antlers — Cerezo Osaka1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Vissel Kobe | 9 | 6 | +5 | 19 |
| 6 | Kashima Antlers | 9 | 5 | +3 | 16 |
| 7 | Yokohama F.Marinos | 9 | 4 | +4 | 15 |
| 11 | Urawa Red Diamonds | 9 | 4 | -5 | 12 |
| 12 | Cerezo Osaka | 9 | 3 | -5 | 12 |
| 13 | Mito Hollyhock | 9 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
J1 League on the same day
- Kyoto Sanga FCShimizu S-Pulsepreliminary4128311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.6
- Mito HollyhockSanfrecce Hiroshimapreliminary1322652The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.7
- Fagiano Okayama FCFC Tokyopreliminary2829432The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.4
- Vissel KobeNagoya Grampuspreliminary5326211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- Kashiwa ReysolUrawa Red Diamondspreliminary5525201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 49% will not happen in roughly 51 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →