J1 League (Japan), round 12 · Sunday, 25 October, MSK
Kawasaki Frontale — Fagiano Okayama FC
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 25 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Kawasaki Frontale are slightly stronger: 44% against 28%, draw 28%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 55%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- League table: Kawasaki Frontale — No. 8, 13 pts; Fagiano Okayama FC — No. 9, 13 pts.
- Last 2 meetings: Kawasaki Frontale 0 wins, Fagiano Okayama FC 0, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Kawasaki Frontale — Fagiano Okayama FC What is xG? | 1.4–1.1 | |
| Kawasaki Frontale not to lose | 72% | |
| Fagiano Okayama FC not to lose | 56% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 49% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 51% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Kawasaki Frontale
- Kawasaki Frontale goals
- Fagiano Okayama FC goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10Nagoya Grampus1:2
- 19.09Kashima Antlers3:3
- 12.09away · Mito Hollyhock1:0
- 06.09Shimizu S-Pulse3:1
- 02.09away · Machida Zelvia1:2
- 10.10away · Avispa Fukuoka1:2
- 19.09Kyoto Sanga FC1:2
- 13.09away · Urawa Red Diamonds2:1
- 06.09Sanfrecce Hiroshima3:2
- 02.09away · JEF United Chiba2:1
Head to head
- 08.11.2025Kawasaki Frontale — Fagiano Okayama FC1:1
- 16.03.2025Fagiano Okayama FC — Kawasaki Frontale0:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Yokohama F.Marinos | 9 | 4 | +4 | 15 |
| 8 | Kawasaki Frontale | 9 | 3 | +3 | 13 |
| 9 | Fagiano Okayama FC | 9 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 10 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 9 | 4 | -1 | 13 |
J1 League on the same day
- Nagoya GrampusYokohama F.Marinospreliminary3828341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.6
- Cerezo OsakaJEF United Chibapreliminary5525201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
- Urawa Red DiamondsV-Varen Nagasakipreliminary5225221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- FC TokyoMito Hollyhockpreliminary6920101The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →