Scottish Premiership, round 9 · Saturday, 17 October, MSK
Kilmarnock — Motherwell
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 17 October
In short
Motherwell are slightly stronger: 41% against 31%, draw 28%.
3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 62%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Motherwell are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Kilmarnock — Motherwell What is xG? | 1.4–1.6 | |
| Kilmarnock not to lose | 59% | |
| Motherwell not to lose | 69% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 62% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 38% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 57% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 43% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Kilmarnock
- Kilmarnock goals
- Motherwell goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10away · Rangers1:3
- 19.09Heart of Midlothian1:1
- 15.09away · Hibernian1:0
- 05.09away · Aberdeen0:0
- 02.09St. Mirren0:1
- 11.10Celtic0:2
- 19.09away · Dundee FC1:2
- 15.09Aberdeen0:4
- 05.09away · Rangers0:1
- 02.09Dundee United3:0
Head to head
- 24.01.2026Motherwell — Kilmarnock4:0
- 22.11.2025Kilmarnock — Motherwell1:3
- 30.08.2025Motherwell — Kilmarnock2:2
- 14.05.2025Motherwell — Kilmarnock3:0
- 05.04.2025Kilmarnock — Motherwell2:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8, Relegation round | Aberdeen | 8 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 9, Relegation round | Motherwell | 8 | 2 | -4 | 8 |
| 10, Relegation round | Hibernian | 8 | 2 | -4 | 7 |
| 11, Relegation round | Falkirk | 8 | 1 | -4 | 6 |
| 12, Relegation round | Kilmarnock | 8 | 1 | -11 | 5 |
Scottish Premiership on the same day
- 4030301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.3
- 4927241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
- 3728351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- 1423632The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →