Scottish Premiership, round 9 · Saturday, 17 October, MSK
Aberdeen — St. Mirren
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 17 October
In short
Aberdeen are slightly stronger: 40% against 30%, draw 30%.
The model expects few goals: 2.3 in total, against a competition average of 2.8.
Over 2.5 goals — 41%, both teams to score — 49%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Aberdeen — St. Mirren What is xG? | 1.3–1.1 | |
| Aberdeen not to lose | 70% | |
| St. Mirren not to lose | 60% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 49% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 51% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 41% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 59% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Aberdeen
- Aberdeen goals
- St. Mirren goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10St. Johnstone0:1
- 19.09away · Hibernian1:1
- 15.09away · Motherwell4:0
- 05.09Kilmarnock0:0
- 02.09away · Celtic0:3
- 10.10away · Heart of Midlothian0:5
- 19.09Dundee United0:3
- 09.09away · Rangers0:1
- 05.09Celtic1:2
- 02.09away · Kilmarnock1:0
Head to head
- 12.05.2026Aberdeen — St. Mirren0:2
- 04.04.2026St. Mirren — Aberdeen2:0
- 03.12.2025Aberdeen — St. Mirren3:3
- 18.10.2025St. Mirren — Aberdeen0:1
- 03.05.2025St. Mirren — Aberdeen1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6, Championship round | Dundee United | 8 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 7, Relegation round | St. Mirren | 8 | 3 | -6 | 10 |
| 8, Relegation round | Aberdeen | 8 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 9, Relegation round | Motherwell | 8 | 2 | -4 | 8 |
Scottish Premiership on the same day
- 4927241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
- 3128412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.0
- 3728351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- 1423632The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →