J1 League (Japan), round 13 · Saturday, 31 October, MSK
Kyoto Sanga FC — Shimizu S-Pulse
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 31 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Kyoto Sanga FC are slightly stronger: 41% against 31%, draw 28%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 55%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- League table: Kyoto Sanga FC — No. 16, 8 pts; Shimizu S-Pulse — No. 10, 13 pts. A gap of 5 pts.
- Shimizu S-Pulse: 3 wins in a row.
- Last 4 meetings: Kyoto Sanga FC 1 win, Shimizu S-Pulse 2, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Kyoto Sanga FC — Shimizu S-Pulse What is xG? | 1.4–1.2 | |
| Kyoto Sanga FC not to lose | 69% | |
| Shimizu S-Pulse not to lose | 59% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 49% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 51% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Kyoto Sanga FC
- Kyoto Sanga FC goals
- Shimizu S-Pulse goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10Machida Zelvia0:1
- 19.09away · Fagiano Okayama FC2:1
- 11.09Kashiwa Reysol2:3
- 06.09away · FC Tokyo0:2
- 02.09away · Yokohama F.Marinos1:1
- 11.10away · Mito Hollyhock2:1
- 19.09JEF United Chiba2:1
- 12.09Avispa Fukuoka1:0
- 06.09away · Kawasaki Frontale1:3
- 02.09FC Tokyo1:1
Head to head
- 02.05.2026Kyoto Sanga FC — Shimizu S-Pulse1:2
- 14.02.2026Shimizu S-Pulse — Kyoto Sanga FC1:1
- 20.09.2025Kyoto Sanga FC — Shimizu S-Pulse0:1
- 16.03.2025Shimizu S-Pulse — Kyoto Sanga FC1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Fagiano Okayama FC | 9 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 10 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 9 | 4 | -1 | 13 |
| 11 | Urawa Red Diamonds | 9 | 4 | -5 | 12 |
| 15 | Nagoya Grampus | 9 | 3 | -6 | 9 |
| 16 | Kyoto Sanga FC | 9 | 2 | -5 | 8 |
| 17 | Avispa Fukuoka | 9 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
J1 League on the same day
- Mito HollyhockSanfrecce Hiroshimapreliminary1322652The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.7
- Fagiano Okayama FCFC Tokyopreliminary2829432The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.4
- Kashima AntlersCerezo Osakapreliminary4927241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- Vissel KobeNagoya Grampuspreliminary5326211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- Kashiwa ReysolUrawa Red Diamondspreliminary5525201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →