Chilean Liga de Primera, round 25 · Saturday, 24 October, MSK
La Serena — Deportes Concepción
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 24 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Evenly matched: La Serena 36%, Deportes Concepción 36%, draw 28%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 55%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Deportes Concepción are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: La Serena — No. 11, 30 pts; Deportes Concepción — No. 9, 32 pts. A gap of 2 pts.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: La Serena — Deportes Concepción What is xG? | 1.3–1.3 | |
| La Serena not to lose | 64% | |
| Deportes Concepción not to lose | 64% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 50% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 50% |
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- All totals
- Handicap La Serena
- La Serena goals
- Deportes Concepción goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10away · Everton CD2:3
- 13.09Universidad de Chile0:3
- 06.09Ñublense2:1
- 01.09away · Unión La Calera1:0
- 23.08Cobresal3:3
- 11.10Unión La Calera1:1
- 13.09away · Colo Colo1:1
- 05.09Audax Italiano0:1
- 30.08away · Ñublense1:0
- 23.08Coquimbo Unido1:1
Head to head
- 19.04.2026Deportes Concepción — La Serena3:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Coquimbo Unido | 24 | 9 | +2 | 32 |
| 9 | Deportes Concepción | 24 | 9 | -1 | 32 |
| 10 | Ñublense | 24 | 8 | -9 | 32 |
| 11 | La Serena | 24 | 7 | -5 | 30 |
| 12 | Audax Italiano | 23 | 7 | -5 | 28 |
Chilean Primera on the same day
- Audax ItalianoHuachipatopreliminary4526291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 36% will not happen in roughly 64 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →