Polish Ekstraklasa, round 12 · Sunday, 25 October, MSK
Legia Warszawa — Lech Poznań
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 25 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Evenly matched: Legia Warszawa 32%, Lech Poznań 37%, draw 31%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 60%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Lech Poznań are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Legia Warszawa — No. 2, 22 pts; Lech Poznań — No. 3, 22 pts.
- Legia Warszawa: unbeaten in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Legia Warszawa 1 win, Lech Poznań 3, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Legia Warszawa — Lech Poznań What is xG? | 1.3–1.4 | |
| Legia Warszawa not to lose | 63% | |
| Lech Poznań not to lose | 68% | |
| No draw | 69% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 60% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 40% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Legia Warszawa
- Legia Warszawa goals
- Lech Poznań goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10Wisła Kraków2:0
- 20.09away · Jagiellonia Białystok3:1
- 13.09Widzew Łódź1:1
- 05.09away · Motor Lublin3:2
- 28.08Śląsk Wrocław1:1
- 10.10away · Śląsk Wrocław4:1
- 20.09Radomiak Radom5:1
- 17.09away · Crystal Palace0:4
- 12.09away · Górnik Zabrze1:2
- 06.09Raków Częstochowa1:0
Head to head
- 26.04.2026Lech Poznań — Legia Warszawa4:0
- 26.10.2025Legia Warszawa — Lech Poznań0:0
- 11.05.2025Legia Warszawa — Lech Poznań0:1
- 10.11.2024Lech Poznań — Legia Warszawa5:2
- 12.05.2024Lech Poznań — Legia Warszawa1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League qualifying | Górnik Zabrze | 10 | 8 | +10 | 25 |
| 2, Champions League qualifying | Legia Warszawa | 10 | 6 | +13 | 22 |
| 3, Europa League or Conference League | Lech Poznań | 9 | 7 | +13 | 22 |
| 4, Europa League or Conference League | Pogoń Szczecin | 9 | 5 | +8 | 18 |
Ekstraklasa on the same day
- Śląsk WrocławWieczysta Krakówpreliminary2928432The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.2
- Jagiellonia BiałystokWisła Płockpreliminary5027221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 37% will not happen in roughly 63 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →