Liga MX (Mexico), round 14 · Sunday, 25 October, MSK
León — Toluca
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 25 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Toluca are clear favourites: 50% against 22% for the opponent, draw 27%.
3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 58%, both teams to score — 61%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Toluca are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: León — Toluca What is xG? | 1.2–1.8 | |
| León not to lose | 50% | |
| Toluca not to lose | 78% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 61% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 39% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 58% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 42% |
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- Handicap León
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- Toluca goals
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Form
- 10.10away · Puebla1:1
- 28.09FC Juárez2:1
- 21.09away · Querétaro FC1:1
- 15.09Atlético de San Luis2:0
- 11.09away · Pumas1:3
- 10.10away · Tigres2:3
- 27.09away · Cruz Azul3:3
- 21.09Santos Laguna2:3
- 16.09away · Puebla1:0
- 13.09Atlas5:2
Head to head
- 26.04.2026Toluca — León4:1
- 05.10.2025León — Toluca2:4
- 09.02.2025León — Toluca3:3
- 03.11.2024Toluca — León2:2
- 04.02.2024Toluca — León4:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Liguilla (playoffs) | CF América | 10 | 6 | +11 | 21 |
| 2, Liguilla (playoffs) | Toluca | 11 | 6 | +10 | 20 |
| 3, Liguilla (playoffs) | Querétaro FC | 10 | 6 | +7 | 20 |
| 4, Liguilla (playoffs) | Chivas | 11 | 5 | +7 | 19 |
| 5, Liguilla (playoffs) | León | 11 | 5 | +3 | 18 |
| 6, Liguilla (playoffs) | Atlas | 11 | 5 | -1 | 18 |
Liga MX on the same day
- MonterreyChivaspreliminary3329382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.8
- PumasTigrespreliminary333037XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →