Ecuadorian LigaPro Serie A, playoff · Sunday, 25 October, MSK
Leones del Norte — Libertad (ECU)
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 25 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Evenly matched: Leones del Norte 37%, Libertad (ECU) 33%, draw 30%.
2.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).
Over 2.5 goals — 36%, both teams to score — 44%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- Leones del Norte: winless in 4.
- Last 3 meetings: Leones del Norte 1 win, Libertad (ECU) 1, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Leones del Norte — Libertad (ECU) What is xG? | 1.1–1.0 | |
| Leones del Norte not to lose | 67% | |
| Libertad (ECU) not to lose | 63% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 44% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 56% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 36% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 64% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Leones del Norte
- Leones del Norte goals
- Libertad (ECU) goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 09.10away · Libertad (ECU)0:3
- 20.09away · Guayaquil City1:1
- 13.09Técnico Universitario0:1
- 08.09away · Mushuc Runa1:1
- 04.09Orense1:0
- 09.10Leones del Norte3:0
- 20.09away · Emelec2:1
- 14.09Independiente del Valle2:3
- 07.09away · Deportivo Cuenca1:0
- 04.09Emelec1:1
Head to head
- 09.10.2026Libertad (ECU) — Leones del Norte3:0
- 04.07.2026Libertad (ECU) — Leones del Norte1:3
- 28.02.2026Leones del Norte — Libertad (ECU)1:1
LigaPro Serie A on the same day
- 6321161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.4
- LDU de QuitoCSD Macarápreliminary4828241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.2
- AucasBarcelona SCpreliminary4130281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.1
- EmelecGuayaquil Citypreliminary4229291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.3
- Técnico UniversitarioMushuc Runapreliminary362935XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.5
- MantaDeportivo Cuencapreliminary363233XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:01.9
- OrenseDelfínpreliminary5327201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 37% will not happen in roughly 63 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →