International Friendlies · Wednesday, 30 September, MSK · S. Dariaus ir S. Girėno stadionas

Lithuania — Andorra

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Model prediction and result

3:0Came true
Lithuania64%
Draw25%
Andorra10%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 3:0: the model's most likely outcome, Lithuania to win (64%), came true.

Lithuania are clear favourites: 64% against 10% for the opponent, draw 25%.

The model expects few goals: 2.2 in total, against a competition average of 2.6.

Over 2.5 goals — 37%, both teams to score — 34%.

Why

  • National-team Elo: Lithuania 1286, Andorra 1067 — Lithuania clearly rated higher.
  • Lithuania: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Lithuania — Andorra What is xG?1.7–0.5
Lithuania not to lose90%
Andorra not to lose36%
No draw75%
Both teams to score: yes34%
Both teams to score: no66%
Total over 2.537%
Total under 2.563%

91 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Lithuania
  • Lithuania goals
  • Andorra goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Form

Lithuania

  • 27.09Azerbaijan1:1
  • 24.09away · Liechtenstein2:0
  • 09.06away · Estonia0:1
  • 06.06Latvia1:1
  • 29.03Georgia0:2

Andorra

  • 27.09away · Gibraltar0:0
  • 24.09Malta1:2
  • 07.06away · Kosovo0:3
  • 04.06Liechtenstein2:0
  • 29.05away · Iraq0:1

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Next matches

  • AzerbaijanLithuania4 October · UEFA Nations League
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 1:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.4
  • MaltaAndorra4 October · UEFA Nations League
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:0, exactly right.2.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 64% will not happen in roughly 36 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →