UEFA Nations League, round 4, League D, group 1 · Sunday, 4 October, MSK · Ta'Qali National Stadium
Malta — Andorra
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1:0Came true
In short
Final score 1:0: the model's most likely outcome, Malta to win (58%), came true.
Malta are clear favourites: 58% against 13% for the opponent, draw 29%.
The model expects few goals: 2.0 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.
Over 2.5 goals — 33%, both teams to score — 35%.
Why
- National-team Elo: Malta 1257, Andorra 1062 — Malta clearly rated higher.
- Malta: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.
Facts
- Malta: unbeaten in 4; Andorra: winless in 4.
- Last 5 meetings: Malta 3 wins, Andorra 0, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Malta — Andorra What is xG? | 1.5–0.6 | |
| Malta not to lose | 87% | |
| Andorra not to lose | 42% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 35% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 65% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 33% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 67% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Malta
- Malta goals
- Andorra goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 01.10Gibraltar1:1
- 27.09Liechtenstein2:0
- 24.09away · Andorra2:1
- 05.06away · Azerbaijan2:0
- 01.06away · Slovakia1:2
- 30.09away · Lithuania0:3
- 27.09away · Gibraltar0:0
- 24.09Malta1:2
- 07.06away · Kosovo0:3
- 04.06Liechtenstein2:0
Head to head
- 24.09.2026Andorra — Malta1:2
- 19.11.2024Malta — Andorra0:0
- 10.09.2024Andorra — Malta0:1
- 14.11.2020Malta — Andorra3:1
- 10.10.2020Andorra — Malta0:0
Table
UEFA Nations League on the same day
- 4230281The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.4
- 2326512The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:2.2.8
- 2425512The most likely outcome did not happen: 20:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:2.3.0
- 7218101The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:1, exactly right.3.4
- 5722201The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:1, exactly right.3.4
- 2027532The most likely outcome came true: 20:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 1:2.2.6
- 3929321The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 58% will not happen in roughly 42 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →