Russian Cup, round 4 · Tuesday, 13 October, MSK · RZD Arena
Lokomotiv Moscow — Akron Togliatti
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In short
Final score 1:1: the model's most likely outcome, Lokomotiv Moscow to win (56%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 56% fails in about 44 matches out of 100 on average.
Lokomotiv Moscow are clear favourites: 56% against 20% for the opponent, draw 24%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 55%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Lokomotiv Moscow are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
- Lokomotiv Moscow: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Lokomotiv Moscow — Akron Togliatti What is xG? | 1.8–1.0 | |
| Lokomotiv Moscow not to lose | 80% | |
| Akron Togliatti not to lose | 44% | |
| No draw | 76% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 55% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 45% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Lokomotiv Moscow
- Lokomotiv Moscow goals
- Akron Togliatti goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 10.10away · Fakel5:0
- 16.09Krylya Sovetov Samara1:1
- 12.09away · Zenit St. Petersburg1:2
- 06.09away · Baltika1:0
- 01.09away · Akron Togliatti0:0
- 09.10away · FC Rostov0:1
- 17.09FK Akhmat2:0
- 13.09away · FC Krasnodar1:1
- 06.09away · FC Orenburg2:2
- 01.09Lokomotiv Moscow0:0
Head to head
- 01.09.2026Akron Togliatti — Lokomotiv Moscow0:0
- 08.08.2026Lokomotiv Moscow — Akron Togliatti0:0
- 22.03.2026Lokomotiv Moscow — Akron Togliatti5:1
- 26.10.2025Akron Togliatti — Lokomotiv Moscow1:1
- 16.09.2025Akron Togliatti — Lokomotiv Moscow1:3
Next matches
- Dynamo MakhachkalaAkron Togliatti17 October · Russian Premier League4731221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
- Lokomotiv MoscowFC Krasnodar17 October · Russian Premier League2631432The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.9
Russian Cup on the same day
- 4027331The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.8
- 841151The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 4:0.3.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 56% will not happen in roughly 44 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →