Russian Premier League, round 11 · Saturday, 17 October, MSK
Lokomotiv Moscow — FC Krasnodar
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In short
FC Krasnodar are slightly stronger: 43% against 26%, draw 31%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 2.9 in total, against a competition average of 2.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 62%.
Why
- By the strength ratings FC Krasnodar are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Lokomotiv Moscow — FC Krasnodar What is xG? | 1.3–1.7 | |
| Lokomotiv Moscow not to lose | 57% | |
| FC Krasnodar not to lose | 74% | |
| No draw | 69% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 62% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 38% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 56% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 44% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Lokomotiv Moscow
- Lokomotiv Moscow goals
- FC Krasnodar goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 13.10Akron Togliatti1:1
- 10.10away · Fakel5:0
- 16.09Krylya Sovetov Samara1:1
- 12.09away · Zenit St. Petersburg1:2
- 06.09away · Baltika1:0
- 13.10Fakel0:2
- 10.10Zenit St. Petersburg2:3
- 17.09away · FC Orenburg0:0
- 13.09Akron Togliatti1:1
- 05.09away · Krylya Sovetov Samara2:2
Head to head
- 23.11.2025Lokomotiv Moscow — FC Krasnodar1:1
- 26.07.2025FC Krasnodar — Lokomotiv Moscow1:2
- 08.12.2024FC Krasnodar — Lokomotiv Moscow0:0
- 01.09.2024Lokomotiv Moscow — FC Krasnodar0:3
- 31.03.2024Lokomotiv Moscow — FC Krasnodar1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Zenit St. Petersburg | 10 | 7 | +11 | 21 |
| 4 | FC Krasnodar | 10 | 6 | +6 | 21 |
| 5 | Spartak Moscow | 10 | 6 | +9 | 20 |
| 12 | FC Rostov | 10 | 3 | -6 | 11 |
| 13, Relegation play-off | Lokomotiv Moscow | 10 | 2 | +2 | 10 |
| 14, Relegation play-off | Akron Togliatti | 10 | 1 | -8 | 8 |
Russian Premier League on the same day
- 5230181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.4
- 4731221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →