Serie B, round 9 · Tuesday, 27 October, 22:00 MSK

LR Vicenza — Modena

Model prediction for 27 October

LR Vicenza25%

Draw29%

Modena46%

Model estimate at 23:15 MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Modena are clear favourites: 46% against 25% for the opponent, draw 29%.

2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).

Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 54%.

Why

By the strength ratings Modena are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.

Probabilities

Expected goals: LR Vicenza — Modena What is xG?		1.1–1.5
LR Vicenza not to lose		54%
Modena not to lose		75%
No draw		71%
Both teams to score: yes		54%
Both teams to score: no		46%
Total over 2.5		48%
Total under 2.5		52%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap LR Vicenza
LR Vicenza goals
Modena goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Form

LR Vicenza

10.10Pisa0:3
20.09away · Hellas Verona1:2
12.09Juve Stabia1:1
06.09away · Virtus Entella2:2
29.08away · Avellino0:3

Modena

11.10Hellas Verona3:2
20.09Empoli2:1
12.09away · Südtirol1:1
06.09Avellino0:1
28.08away · Cremonese3:0

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
2, Promotion	Mantova	6	4	2	0	13–6	+7	14
3, Promotion play-offs	Modena	6	4	1	1	11–6	+5	13
4, Promotion play-offs	Südtirol	6	3	3	0	9–3	+6	12
16, Relegation play-off	Empoli	6	2	0	4	6–10	-4	6
17, Relegation play-off	LR Vicenza	6	1	2	3	7–13	-6	5
18, Relegation	Carrarese	6	1	1	4	4–6	-2	4

Season 2026/27

Full table

Serie B on the same day

21:00
BeneventoCatanzaropreliminary
393032
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
22:00
AscoliSampdoriapreliminary
453125
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.3
22:00
CesenaEmpolipreliminary
472825
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.7
22:00
Virtus EntellaAvellinopreliminary
472924
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.1
22:00
MantovaCremonesepreliminary
393130
XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.5
22:00
PadovaSüdtirolpreliminary
333235
XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.3

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →