J1 League (Japan), round 10 · Sunday, 18 October, MSK
Machida Zelvia — Avispa Fukuoka
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 18 October
In short
Machida Zelvia are clear favourites: 55% against 18% for the opponent, draw 27%.
The model expects few goals: 2.2 in total, against a competition average of 2.6.
Over 2.5 goals — 37%, both teams to score — 42%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Machida Zelvia are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Machida Zelvia — No. 3, 20 pts; Avispa Fukuoka — No. 17, 7 pts. A gap of 13 pts.
- Last 4 meetings: Machida Zelvia 1 win, Avispa Fukuoka 0, 3 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Machida Zelvia — Avispa Fukuoka What is xG? | 1.4–0.8 | |
| Machida Zelvia not to lose | 82% | |
| Avispa Fukuoka not to lose | 45% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 42% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 58% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 37% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 63% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Machida Zelvia
- Machida Zelvia goals
- Avispa Fukuoka goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10away · Kyoto Sanga FC1:0
- 20.09Kashiwa Reysol2:4
- 12.09Yokohama F.Marinos1:1
- 06.09away · Nagoya Grampus3:1
- 02.09Kawasaki Frontale2:1
- 10.10Fagiano Okayama FC2:1
- 19.09Sanfrecce Hiroshima0:1
- 12.09away · Shimizu S-Pulse0:1
- 05.09Mito Hollyhock1:1
- 02.09Urawa Red Diamonds2:3
Head to head
- 18.10.2025Machida Zelvia — Avispa Fukuoka0:0
- 29.03.2025Avispa Fukuoka — Machida Zelvia2:2
- 14.09.2024Avispa Fukuoka — Machida Zelvia0:3
- 22.06.2024Machida Zelvia — Avispa Fukuoka0:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 9 | 6 | +16 | 20 |
| 3 | Machida Zelvia | 9 | 6 | +12 | 20 |
| 4 | FC Tokyo | 9 | 6 | +9 | 20 |
| 16 | Kyoto Sanga FC | 9 | 2 | -5 | 8 |
| 17 | Avispa Fukuoka | 9 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 18, Relegation | Gamba Osaka | 9 | 1 | -8 | 6 |
J1 League on the same day
- 3029402The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 55% will not happen in roughly 45 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →