English Premier League, round 6 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Old Trafford
Manchester United — Tottenham Hotspur
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In short
Final score 1:1: the model's most likely outcome, Manchester United to win (61%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 61% fails in about 39 matches out of 100 on average.
Manchester United are clear favourites: 61% against 15% for the opponent, draw 24%.
3.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 61%, both teams to score — 61%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Manchester United are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- Tottenham Hotspur: winless in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Manchester United 1 win, Tottenham Hotspur 3, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Manchester United — Tottenham Hotspur What is xG? | 2.1–1.1 | |
| Manchester United not to lose | 85% | |
| Tottenham Hotspur not to lose | 39% | |
| No draw | 76% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 61% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 39% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 61% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 39% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Manchester United
- Manchester United goals
- Tottenham Hotspur goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 20.09away · Fulham1:1
- 16.09Brighton & Hove Albion2:3
- 13.09Manchester City0:1
- 10.09Sabah FK4:0
- 06.09away · Everton2:2
- 19.09Aston Villa2:3
- 15.09away · Liverpool1:3
- 12.09Everton0:0
- 05.09away · Nottingham Forest0:0
- 29.08Newcastle United0:2
Head to head
- 07.02.2026Manchester United — Tottenham Hotspur2:0
- 08.11.2025Tottenham Hotspur — Manchester United2:2
- 21.05.2025Tottenham Hotspur — Manchester United1:0
- 16.02.2025Tottenham Hotspur — Manchester United1:0
- 19.12.2024Tottenham Hotspur — Manchester United4:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 2 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Manchester United | 6 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 | Coventry City | 6 | 2 | -6 | 6 |
| 18, Relegation | AFC Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | -6 | 3 |
| 19, Relegation | Tottenham Hotspur | 6 | 0 | -6 | 3 |
| 20, Relegation | Fulham | 6 | 0 | -4 | 2 |
Next matches
- Atlético MadridManchester United13 October · Champions League5125241The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.8
- Tottenham HotspurCoventry City19 October · Premier League5425201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
Premier League on the same day
- 7119101The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:1, exactly right.2.7
- 352935XThe most likely outcome came true: X2:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 1:1.2.9
- 4627281The most likely outcome came true: 15:1Final score 5:1. Model's score: 2:1.3.3
- 2228502The most likely outcome did not happen: 22:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 1:2.2.8
- 2229492The most likely outcome came true: 20:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 1:2.2.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 61% will not happen in roughly 39 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →