EFL Championship, round 11 · Saturday, 17 October, MSK
Middlesbrough — Cardiff City
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 17 October
In short
Middlesbrough are clear favourites: 67% against 13% for the opponent, draw 20%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.5 in total, against a competition average of 2.6.
Over 2.5 goals — 67%, both teams to score — 62%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Middlesbrough are about 1.0 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Middlesbrough — Cardiff City What is xG? | 2.4–1.1 | |
| Middlesbrough not to lose | 87% | |
| Cardiff City not to lose | 33% | |
| No draw | 80% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 62% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 38% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 67% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 33% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Middlesbrough
- Middlesbrough goals
- Cardiff City goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 13.10away · Stoke City3:2
- 10.10Wolverhampton Wanderers1:0
- 19.09away · Birmingham City2:2
- 15.09Millwall2:2
- 12.09Norwich City4:3
- 13.10Watford5:1
- 10.10away · Blackburn Rovers1:2
- 19.09Charlton Athletic3:1
- 12.09away · Bolton Wanderers0:1
- 08.09Stoke City1:1
Head to head
- 04.01.2025Middlesbrough — Cardiff City1:1
- 31.08.2024Cardiff City — Middlesbrough0:2
- 27.04.2024Cardiff City — Middlesbrough1:4
- 03.10.2023Middlesbrough — Cardiff City2:0
- 11.02.2023Cardiff City — Middlesbrough1:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Promotion | Swansea City | 10 | 7 | +9 | 23 |
| 2, Promotion | Middlesbrough | 10 | 6 | +6 | 21 |
| 3, Promotion play-offs | Southampton | 9 | 5 | +10 | 17 |
| 17 | Lincoln City | 9 | 3 | -4 | 11 |
| 18 | Cardiff City | 10 | 2 | +1 | 10 |
| 19 | Norwich City | 9 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
Championship on the same day
- 4729251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
- 4329281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.4
- 5127221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
- 3829331The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
- 5127231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
- 4927241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- 6222161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.5
- 3628362The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 67% will not happen in roughly 33 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →