Ligue 1, round 8 · Sunday, 25 October, MSK
Monaco — Lille
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 25 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Monaco are slightly stronger: 45% against 29%, draw 26%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Monaco are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Monaco — Lille What is xG? | 1.5–1.2 | |
| Monaco not to lose | 71% | |
| Lille not to lose | 55% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
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- Handicap Monaco
- Monaco goals
- Lille goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10Toulouse2:2
- 18.09Lens2:1
- 12.09away · Strasbourg1:1
- 04.09away · Paris Saint-Germain2:1
- 30.08Marseille2:0
Head to head
- 10.05.2026Monaco — Lille0:1
- 24.08.2025Lille — Monaco1:0
- 22.02.2025Lille — Monaco2:1
- 18.10.2024Monaco — Lille0:0
- 24.04.2024Monaco — Lille1:0
Table
Ligue 1 on the same day
- AngersLorientpreliminary3128422The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.4
- AuxerreLe Manspreliminary3727361The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.1
- MarseilleLe Havrepreliminary6620141The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.1
- RennesStrasbourgpreliminary5025251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.1
- Paris Saint-GermainLyonpreliminary7416101The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →