Portuguese Primeira Liga, round 8 · Friday, 9 October, MSK · Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas
Moreirense — Gil Vicente
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
0:1Came true
In short
Final score 0:1: the model's most likely outcome, Gil Vicente to win (42%), came true.
Gil Vicente are slightly stronger: 42% against 25%, draw 33%.
The model expects few goals: 2.2 in total, against a competition average of 2.7.
Over 2.5 goals — 37%, both teams to score — 46%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Gil Vicente are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- Gil Vicente: winless in 4.
- Last 5 meetings: Moreirense 2 wins, Gil Vicente 3.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Moreirense — Gil Vicente What is xG? | 0.9–1.3 | |
| Moreirense not to lose | 58% | |
| Gil Vicente not to lose | 75% | |
| No draw | 67% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 46% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 54% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 37% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 63% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Moreirense
- Moreirense goals
- Gil Vicente goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Form
- 20.09away · Vitória de Guimarães1:1
- 14.09Marítimo3:1
- 09.09Benfica0:4
- 04.09away · FC Porto1:2
- 30.08away · Casa Pia AC1:0
- 19.09Marítimo1:1
- 13.09away · Benfica1:3
- 06.09Académico Viseu0:1
- 30.08away · Famalicão0:0
- 24.08Casa Pia AC2:0
Head to head
- 07.02.2026Moreirense — Gil Vicente1:2
- 29.08.2025Gil Vicente — Moreirense2:0
- 06.04.2025Gil Vicente — Moreirense0:1
- 12.01.2025Gil Vicente — Moreirense1:0
- 08.11.2024Moreirense — Gil Vicente3:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Alverca | 8 | 3 | +1 | 11 |
| 8 | Gil Vicente | 7 | 3 | +1 | 11 |
| 9 | Braga | 7 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 11 | Marítimo | 8 | 2 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 8 | 2 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicão | 8 | 1 | -1 | 7 |
Next matches
- SantarémGil Vicente14 October · Taca de Portugal1017732The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:33.2
- AVS Futebol SADMoreirense17 October · Taca de Portugal3627382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
Primeira Liga on the same day
- 2529462The most likely outcome came true: 21:3Final score 1:3. Model's score: 0:2.2.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →