Uruguayan Primera Division, round 9 · Tuesday, 6 October, MSK
Nacional (URU) — Montevideo City Torque
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2:0Came true
In short
Final score 2:0: the model's most likely outcome, Nacional (URU) to win (44%), came true.
Nacional (URU) are slightly stronger: 44% against 30%, draw 26%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.3 in total, against a competition average of 2.3.
Over 2.5 goals — 64%, both teams to score — 66%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Nacional (URU) are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- Nacional (URU): unbeaten in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Nacional (URU) 4 wins, Montevideo City Torque 1.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Nacional (URU) — Montevideo City Torque What is xG? | 1.8–1.5 | |
| Nacional (URU) not to lose | 70% | |
| Montevideo City Torque not to lose | 56% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 66% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 34% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 64% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 36% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Nacional (URU)
- Nacional (URU) goals
- Montevideo City Torque goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 26.09away · Cerro Largo2:0
- 20.09Defensor Sporting3:2
- 12.09away · Montevideo Wanderers1:1
- 06.09Juventud de las Piedras2:2
- 30.08away · Club Atletico Peñarol1:0
- 01.10Club Atletico Peñarol1:1
- 27.09Deportivo Maldonado0:2
- 22.09away · Central Español4:1
- 18.09Cienciano3:0
- 15.09Liverpool FC3:1
Head to head
- 16.05.2026Montevideo City Torque — Nacional (URU)1:2
- 29.03.2026Montevideo City Torque — Nacional (URU)2:3
- 02.08.2025Nacional (URU) — Montevideo City Torque5:2
- 01.06.2025Montevideo City Torque — Nacional (URU)1:2
- 03.02.2025Montevideo City Torque — Nacional (URU)1:0
Next matches
- Montevideo City TorqueDanubio9 October · Uruguayan Primera6123161The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.7
- Central EspañolNacional (URU)12 October · Uruguayan Primera2026552The most likely outcome came true: 20:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 0:1, exactly right.2.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →