Uruguayan Primera Division, round 10 · Monday, 12 October, MSK
Central Español — Nacional (URU)
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0:1Came true
In short
Final score 0:1: the model's most likely outcome, Nacional (URU) to win (55%), came true.
Nacional (URU) are clear favourites: 55% against 20% for the opponent, draw 26%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 52%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Nacional (URU) are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Central Español — Nacional (URU) What is xG? | 0.9–1.7 | |
| Central Español not to lose | 45% | |
| Nacional (URU) not to lose | 80% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 52% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 48% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 49% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 51% |
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- Handicap Central Español
- Central Español goals
- Nacional (URU) goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 04.10away · Deportivo Maldonado0:3
- 27.09Liverpool FC1:2
- 22.09Montevideo City Torque1:4
- 13.09away · Cerro Largo0:0
- 06.09Defensor Sporting1:1
- 06.10Montevideo City Torque2:0
- 26.09away · Cerro Largo2:0
- 20.09Defensor Sporting3:2
- 12.09away · Montevideo Wanderers1:1
- 06.09Juventud de las Piedras2:2
Head to head
- 04.04.2026Nacional (URU) — Central Español0:1
Next matches
- DanubioCentral Español18 October · Uruguayan Primera4331261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:01.9
- Nacional (URU)Deportivo Maldonado20 October · Uruguayan Primera5026241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 55% will not happen in roughly 45 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →