Serie A, round 8 · Saturday, 24 October, MSK
Napoli — Roma
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 24 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Evenly matched: Napoli 33%, Roma 35%, draw 32%.
2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 42%, both teams to score — 51%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Napoli — Roma What is xG? | 1.2–1.2 | |
| Napoli not to lose | 65% | |
| Roma not to lose | 67% | |
| No draw | 68% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 51% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 49% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 42% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 58% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Napoli
- Napoli goals
- Roma goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 13.10away · Villarreal1:3
- 10.10Frosinone3:0
- 20.09away · Fiorentina1:1
- 13.09Bologna1:0
- 09.09Arsenal0:1
Head to head
- 15.02.2026Napoli — Roma2:2
- 30.11.2025Roma — Napoli0:1
- 02.02.2025Roma — Napoli1:1
- 24.11.2024Napoli — Roma1:0
- 28.04.2024Napoli — Roma2:2
Table
Serie A on the same day
- CagliariBolognapreliminary303338XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.3
- ComoSassuolopreliminary6125151The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:02.9
- LazioParmapreliminary5727151The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 35% will not happen in roughly 65 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →