Serie A, round 8 · Saturday, 24 October, MSK
Lazio — Parma
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 24 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Lazio are clear favourites: 57% against 15% for the opponent, draw 28%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 51%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Lazio are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Lazio — No. 2, 16 pts; Parma — No. 18, 4 pts. A gap of 12 pts.
- Lazio: unbeaten in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Lazio 2 wins, Parma 1, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Lazio — Parma What is xG? | 1.7–0.9 | |
| Lazio not to lose | 85% | |
| Parma not to lose | 43% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 51% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 49% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 50% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 50% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Lazio
- Lazio goals
- Parma goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
Head to head
- 04.04.2026Lazio — Parma1:1
- 13.12.2025Parma — Lazio0:1
- 28.04.2025Lazio — Parma2:2
- 01.12.2024Parma — Lazio3:1
- 12.05.2021Lazio — Parma1:0
Table
Serie A on the same day
- CagliariBolognapreliminary293338XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.5
- ComoSassuolopreliminary6324131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:02.9
- NapoliRomapreliminary313237XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 2:22.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 57% will not happen in roughly 43 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →