Uzbekistan Super League, round 24 · Saturday, 17 October, MSK
Navbahor Namangan — Pakhtakor Tashkent
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 17 October
In short
Evenly matched: Navbahor Namangan 38%, Pakhtakor Tashkent 33%, draw 28%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 61%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- League table: Navbahor Namangan — No. 3, 45 pts; Pakhtakor Tashkent — No. 2, 52 pts. A gap of 7 pts.
- Navbahor Namangan: unbeaten in 5; Pakhtakor Tashkent: 4 wins in a row.
- Days of rest before the match: Navbahor Namangan 6, Pakhtakor Tashkent 8.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Navbahor Namangan — Pakhtakor Tashkent What is xG? | 1.5–1.4 | |
| Navbahor Namangan not to lose | 67% | |
| Pakhtakor Tashkent not to lose | 62% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 61% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 39% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 57% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 43% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Navbahor Namangan
- Navbahor Namangan goals
- Pakhtakor Tashkent goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10away · AGMK2:2
- 17.09Dinamo Samarkand3:2
- 11.09away · Buxoro4:1
- 04.09Lokomotiv Tashkent1:1
- 26.08away · Mashal Muborak2:0
- 09.10Bunyodkor Tashkent3:1
- 19.09away · Mashal Muborak2:1
- 09.09away · AGMK3:1
- 04.09Andijon3:0
- 25.08away · Dinamo Samarkand1:1
Head to head
- 10.03.2026Pakhtakor Tashkent — Navbahor Namangan0:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi Fargona | 23 | 16 | +33 | 52 |
| 2 | Pakhtakor Tashkent | 23 | 15 | +21 | 52 |
| 3 | Navbahor Namangan | 23 | 13 | +18 | 45 |
| 4 | Lokomotiv Tashkent | 23 | 11 | +9 | 38 |
Uzbekistan Super League on the same day
- 3628361The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- 3927341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 38% will not happen in roughly 62 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →