English Premier League, round 7 · Saturday, 17 October, MSK
Newcastle United — Aston Villa
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 17 October
In short
Newcastle United are clear favourites: 47% against 26% for the opponent, draw 27%.
3.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 62%, both teams to score — 64%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Newcastle United are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Newcastle United — No. 11, 8 pts; Aston Villa — No. 16, 5 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Newcastle United 2 wins, Aston Villa 2, 1 draw.
- Days of rest before the match: Newcastle United 5, Aston Villa 7.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Newcastle United — Aston Villa What is xG? | 1.8–1.3 | |
| Newcastle United not to lose | 74% | |
| Aston Villa not to lose | 53% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 64% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 36% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 62% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 38% |
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- Aston Villa goals
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Form
- 12.10away · Coventry City1:4
- 19.09Hull City2:1
- 14.09away · Leeds United1:4
- 08.09away · Millwall1:0
- 05.09AFC Bournemouth2:2
- 10.10Brentford2:2
- 19.09away · Tottenham Hotspur3:2
- 16.09away · Coventry City3:1
- 12.09Nottingham Forest1:2
- 08.09away · Club Brugge3:2
Head to head
- 14.02.2026Aston Villa — Newcastle United1:3
- 25.01.2026Newcastle United — Aston Villa0:2
- 16.08.2025Aston Villa — Newcastle United0:0
- 19.04.2025Aston Villa — Newcastle United4:1
- 26.12.2024Newcastle United — Aston Villa3:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Ipswich Town | 6 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Newcastle United | 6 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 2 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Nottingham Forest | 6 | 1 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Sunderland | 6 | 1 | -6 | 4 |
Premier League on the same day
- 2731432The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.0
- 353036XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:13.1
- 5526201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- 791471The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 47% will not happen in roughly 53 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →