Liga MX (Mexico), round 13 · Thursday, 22 October, MSK
Pachuca — Cruz Azul
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 22 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Cruz Azul are slightly stronger: 40% against 31%, draw 30%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 59%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Cruz Azul are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Pachuca — Cruz Azul What is xG? | 1.3–1.5 | |
| Pachuca not to lose | 60% | |
| Cruz Azul not to lose | 69% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 59% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 41% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Pachuca
- Pachuca goals
- Cruz Azul goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 12.10Necaxa3:3
- 27.09away · Santos Laguna0:1
- 21.09Tijuana2:2
- 12.09away · Atlante3:0
- 05.09away · FC Juárez2:0
- 12.10away · Pumas3:3
- 27.09Toluca3:3
- 20.09away · Monterrey0:1
- 13.09CF América4:3
- 07.09Santos Laguna1:0
Head to head
- 05.04.2026Cruz Azul — Pachuca1:2
- 14.09.2025Pachuca — Cruz Azul0:1
- 09.02.2025Cruz Azul — Pachuca2:1
- 29.09.2024Pachuca — Cruz Azul2:4
- 14.01.2024Cruz Azul — Pachuca0:1
Table
Liga MX on the same day
- PueblaMonterreypreliminary2630452The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.7
- AtlasCF Américapreliminary2329482The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.7
- TolucaTijuanapreliminary6819131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.4
- Santos LagunaPumaspreliminary3728351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →