Liga MX (Mexico), round 11 · Monday, 12 October, MSK · Estadio Hidalgo
Pachuca — Necaxa
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3:3Missed
In short
Final score 3:3: the model's most likely outcome, Pachuca to win (54%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 54% fails in about 46 matches out of 100 on average.
Pachuca are clear favourites: 54% against 19% for the opponent, draw 26%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 58%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Pachuca are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Pachuca — Necaxa What is xG? | 1.8–1.1 | |
| Pachuca not to lose | 81% | |
| Necaxa not to lose | 46% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 55% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 45% |
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Form
- 27.09away · Santos Laguna0:1
- 21.09Tijuana2:2
- 12.09away · Atlante3:0
- 05.09away · FC Juárez2:0
- 30.08Chivas1:1
- 28.09CF América2:4
- 20.09away · Atlético de San Luis1:3
- 12.09Puebla0:1
- 06.09away · Tigres1:1
- 29.08Cruz Azul1:3
Head to head
- 04.03.2026Pachuca — Necaxa2:1
- 04.10.2025Necaxa — Pachuca0:1
- 12.04.2025Necaxa — Pachuca3:5
- 03.11.2024Pachuca — Necaxa6:2
- 24.02.2024Necaxa — Pachuca1:1
Table
Next matches
- NecaxaAtlas17 October · Liga MX4627271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
- MonterreyPachuca19 October · Liga MX4627261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
Liga MX on the same day
- 5126231The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 2:1.3.1
- 3130402The most likely outcome did not happen: 23:3Final score 3:3. Model's score: 0:1.2.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 54% will not happen in roughly 46 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →