Liga MX (Mexico), round 11 · Monday, 12 October, MSK · Estadio Libertad Financiera
Atlético de San Luis — Santos Laguna
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In short
Final score 1:2: the model's most likely outcome, Atlético de San Luis to win (51%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 51% fails in about 49 matches out of 100 on average.
Atlético de San Luis are clear favourites: 51% against 23% for the opponent, draw 26%.
3.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 63%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Atlético de San Luis are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Atlético de San Luis — Santos Laguna What is xG? | 1.8–1.3 | |
| Atlético de San Luis not to lose | 77% | |
| Santos Laguna not to lose | 49% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 63% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 37% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 60% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 40% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Atlético de San Luis
- Atlético de San Luis goals
- Santos Laguna goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 27.09away · Pumas3:2
- 20.09Necaxa3:1
- 15.09away · León0:2
- 06.09Chivas0:3
- 31.08away · Monterrey3:1
- 27.09Pachuca1:0
- 21.09away · Toluca3:2
- 14.09FC Juárez2:1
- 07.09away · Cruz Azul0:1
- 30.08Tigres0:0
Head to head
- 23.04.2026Atlético de San Luis — Santos Laguna2:0
- 22.09.2025Santos Laguna — Atlético de San Luis1:4
- 31.03.2025Santos Laguna — Atlético de San Luis2:3
- 29.09.2024Atlético de San Luis — Santos Laguna3:1
- 29.04.2024Santos Laguna — Atlético de San Luis0:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Tigres | 11 | 3 | -2 | 13 |
| 14 | Santos Laguna | 11 | 4 | -4 | 13 |
| 15 | Atlético de San Luis | 11 | 3 | -5 | 12 |
| 16 | Atlante | 11 | 2 | -5 | 11 |
Next matches
- Santos LagunaQuerétaro FC18 October · Liga MX3827351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.2
- TolucaAtlético de San Luis18 October · Liga MX7019111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.2
Liga MX on the same day
- 5426191The most likely outcome did not happen: 13:3Final score 3:3. Model's score: 2:1.2.9
- 3130402The most likely outcome did not happen: 23:3Final score 3:3. Model's score: 0:1.2.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →