Bundesliga, round 7 · Saturday, 24 October, MSK
Paderborn — Hamburger SV
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 24 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Evenly matched: Paderborn 34%, Hamburger SV 36%, draw 30%.
The model expects few goals: 2.6 in total, against a competition average of 3.3.
Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 55%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Paderborn — Hamburger SV What is xG? | 1.3–1.3 | |
| Paderborn not to lose | 64% | |
| Hamburger SV not to lose | 66% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 47% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 53% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Paderborn
- Paderborn goals
- Hamburger SV goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10VfB Stuttgart0:2
- 20.09Hoffenheim3:1
- 12.09away · Borussia Dortmund0:3
- 05.09Freiburg0:1
- 29.08away · Mainz 050:0
- 10.10away · Hoffenheim3:2
- 19.091. FC Köln2:1
- 13.09away · RB Leipzig0:5
- 06.09Mainz 050:5
- 29.08away · Borussia Dortmund0:2
Head to head
- 02.03.2025Paderborn — Hamburger SV2:0
- 28.09.2024Hamburger SV — Paderborn2:2
- 10.05.2024Paderborn — Hamburger SV1:0
- 09.12.2023Hamburger SV — Paderborn1:2
- 05.05.2023Hamburger SV — Paderborn2:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV | 5 | 2 | -10 | 6 |
| 13 | Schalke 04 | 5 | 1 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 | Paderborn | 5 | 1 | -4 | 4 |
| 16, Relegation play-off | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | -12 | 4 |
Bundesliga on the same day
- AugsburgUnion Berlinpreliminary393230XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 2:22.9
- 1. FC KölnSchalke 04preliminary4927241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.1
- Mainz 05Werder Bremenpreliminary5326211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.2
- RB LeipzigElversbergpreliminary6222161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.5
- Borussia DortmundEintracht Frankfurtpreliminary6920111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 36% will not happen in roughly 64 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →