Serie B, round 9 · Tuesday, 27 October, MSK

Padova — Südtirol

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Model prediction for 27 October

Padova33%
Draw32%
Südtirol35%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Evenly matched: Padova 33%, Südtirol 35%, draw 32%.

2.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).

Over 2.5 goals — 39%, both teams to score — 48%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Südtirol are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Padova — Südtirol What is xG?1.1–1.1
Padova not to lose65%
Südtirol not to lose67%
No draw68%
Both teams to score: yes48%
Both teams to score: no52%
Total over 2.539%
Total under 2.561%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Padova
  • Padova goals
  • Südtirol goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Form

Padova

  • 11.10Carrarese0:2
  • 19.09away · Palermo1:2
  • 12.09Ascoli1:0
  • 06.09away · Cremonese1:3
  • 29.08Hellas Verona1:1

Südtirol

  • 10.10Ascoli0:0
  • 20.09away · Arezzo4:1
  • 15.09away · Genoa0:1
  • 12.09Modena1:1
  • 05.09Catanzaro2:0

Head to head

  • 25.01.2026Südtirol — Padova3:0
  • 01.11.2025Padova — Südtirol1:1

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
3, Promotion play-offsModena641111–6+513
4, Promotion play-offsSüdtirol63309–3+612
5, Promotion play-offsAscoli63217–4+311
10Cesena61417–8-17
11Padova62135–8-37
12Arezzo62136–13-77

Season 2026/27

Full table

Serie B on the same day

  • 1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
  • AscoliSampdoriapreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.3
  • CesenaEmpolipreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.7
  • 1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.1
  • LR VicenzaModenapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.6
  • MantovaCremonesepreliminary
    XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 35% will not happen in roughly 65 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →