Uzbekistan Super League, round 23 · Friday, 9 October, MSK
Pakhtakor Tashkent — Bunyodkor Tashkent
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3:1Came true
In short
Final score 3:1: the model's most likely outcome, Pakhtakor Tashkent to win (69%), came true.
Pakhtakor Tashkent are clear favourites: 69% against 12% for the opponent, draw 19%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 47%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Pakhtakor Tashkent are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- Pakhtakor Tashkent: 3 wins in a row.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Pakhtakor Tashkent — Bunyodkor Tashkent What is xG? | 2.1–0.8 | |
| Pakhtakor Tashkent not to lose | 88% | |
| Bunyodkor Tashkent not to lose | 31% | |
| No draw | 81% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 47% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 53% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 54% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 46% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Pakhtakor Tashkent
- Pakhtakor Tashkent goals
- Bunyodkor Tashkent goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 19.09away · Mashal Muborak2:1
- 09.09away · AGMK3:1
- 04.09Andijon3:0
- 25.08away · Dinamo Samarkand1:1
- 21.08Surkhon-20110:0
- 19.09Buxoro2:1
- 09.09away · Nasaf Qarshi0:3
- 04.09Surkhon-20110:1
- 26.08away · Lokomotiv Tashkent1:4
- 20.08Kokand 19120:1
Head to head
- 26.07.2026Bunyodkor Tashkent — Pakhtakor Tashkent0:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi Fargona | 23 | 16 | +33 | 52 |
| 2 | Pakhtakor Tashkent | 23 | 15 | +21 | 52 |
| 3 | Navbahor Namangan | 23 | 13 | +18 | 45 |
| 14 | Xorazm | 23 | 5 | -14 | 22 |
| 15 | Bunyodkor Tashkent | 23 | 7 | -16 | 22 |
| 16 | Mashal Muborak | 23 | 1 | -36 | 4 |
Next matches
- Bunyodkor TashkentSogdiana16 October · Uzbekistan Super League3526392The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.6
- Navbahor NamanganPakhtakor Tashkent17 October · Uzbekistan Super League3828331The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
Uzbekistan Super League on the same day
- 6125141The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.0
- 4727261The most likely outcome came true: 13:2Final score 3:2. Model's score: 2:0.2.7
- 5325221The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 69% will not happen in roughly 31 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →