Brazilian Serie A, round 30 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Nubank Parque
Palmeiras — Corinthians
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
4:1Came true
In short
Final score 4:1: the model's most likely outcome, Palmeiras to win (63%), came true.
Palmeiras are clear favourites: 63% against 12% for the opponent, draw 24%.
The model expects few goals: 2.3 in total, against a competition average of 2.7.
Over 2.5 goals — 40%, both teams to score — 41%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Palmeiras are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.
- Palmeiras: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.
Facts
- Corinthians: 4 defeats in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Palmeiras 1 win, Corinthians 2, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Palmeiras — Corinthians What is xG? | 1.6–0.7 | |
| Palmeiras not to lose | 88% | |
| Corinthians not to lose | 37% | |
| No draw | 76% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 41% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 59% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 40% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 60% |
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Form
- 09.10Bahia1:0
- 20.09away · Grêmio0:0
- 17.09away · LDU de Quito2:3
- 13.09São Paulo2:0
- 10.09LDU de Quito1:0
- 08.10away · Internacional1:2
- 20.09Fluminense1:3
- 17.09Estudiantes0:1
- 13.09away · Flamengo1:2
- 10.09away · Estudiantes1:1
Head to head
- 13.04.2026Corinthians — Palmeiras0:0
- 01.09.2025Corinthians — Palmeiras1:1
- 07.08.2025Palmeiras — Corinthians0:2
- 31.07.2025Corinthians — Palmeiras1:0
- 13.04.2025Palmeiras — Corinthians2:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Copa Libertadores | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | +33 | 64 |
| 2, Copa Libertadores | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | +30 | 63 |
| 3, Copa Libertadores | Athletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | +14 | 53 |
| 16 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | -5 | 32 |
| 17, Relegation | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | -7 | 32 |
| 18, Relegation | Grêmio | 30 | 7 | -8 | 31 |
Next matches
- FluminensePalmeiras15 October · Copa Libertadores373033XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.3
- CorinthiansVitória20 October · Brasileirao5626181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.4
Brasileirao on the same day
- 6222161The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.9
- 5028221The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.3
- 5027231The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:1, exactly right.2.7
- 6720121The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.8
- 373034XThe most likely outcome came true: X1:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:1, exactly right.2.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 63% will not happen in roughly 37 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →