Ligue 1, round 8 · Sunday, 25 October, MSK
Paris Saint-Germain — Lyon
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 25 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Paris Saint-Germain are clear favourites: 74% against 10% for the opponent, draw 16%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.4 in total, against a competition average of 2.8.
Over 2.5 goals — 67%, both teams to score — 58%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Paris Saint-Germain are about 1.4 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Paris Saint-Germain — Lyon What is xG? | 2.4–0.9 | |
| Paris Saint-Germain not to lose | 90% | |
| Lyon not to lose | 26% | |
| No draw | 84% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 67% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 33% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
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- Handicap Paris Saint-Germain
- Paris Saint-Germain goals
- Lyon goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 10.10Le Mans3:1
- 20.09away · Marseille2:1
- 13.09away · Brest1:0
- 09.09Slovan Bratislava6:1
- 04.09Monaco1:2
- 09.10away · Lens1:2
- 19.09Rennes4:0
- 16.09away · Anderlecht2:1
- 12.09away · Paris FC0:0
- 04.09Auxerre3:1
Head to head
- 19.04.2026Paris Saint-Germain — Lyon1:2
- 09.11.2025Lyon — Paris Saint-Germain2:3
- 23.02.2025Lyon — Paris Saint-Germain2:3
- 15.12.2024Paris Saint-Germain — Lyon3:1
- 25.05.2024Lyon — Paris Saint-Germain1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Champions League | Rennes | 6 | 4 | +2 | 13 |
| 4, Champions League qualifying | Lyon | 6 | 3 | +7 | 11 |
| 5, Europa League or Conference League | Paris FC | 6 | 3 | +4 | 11 |
| 6, Europa League or Conference League | Paris Saint-Germain | 6 | 3 | +3 | 11 |
| 7 | Brest | 6 | 2 | +3 | 8 |
Ligue 1 on the same day
- MonacoLillepreliminary4526291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.7
- AngersLorientpreliminary3128422The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.4
- AuxerreLe Manspreliminary3727361The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.1
- MarseilleLe Havrepreliminary6620141The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.1
- RennesStrasbourgpreliminary5025251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 74% will not happen in roughly 26 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →